On the day the Randy Couture-Brock Lesnar UFC 91 fight was announced, the online betting site Bodog installed Couture as a slight favorite. I was surprised that Couture wasn't a heavier favorite, considering that he's one of the all-time greats in mixed martial arts, and Lesnar has only had three professional fights.But it turns out that most bettors are putting their money on Lesnar, and as a result the house is moving the odds in Lesnar's direction. In fact, the odds at Bodog now have it exactly even: There is no favorite and no underdog; the fight is a toss-up.
That meshes pretty well with what I'm hearing. Most of the fans I've heard from think Lesnar is going to win, and I've asked three professional MMA fighters and all three of them think Lesnar is going to win. The bottom line is that while some people think Lesnar doesn't deserve a title shot, most people think that by the end of the night on Nov. 15, Lesnar is going to be the new UFC heavyweight champion.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-29-2008 @ 9:01AM
Eric said...
Randy has shocked the world many times (Tito, 1st fight vs Liddell, Sylvia, Gonzaga), but this fight really concerns me. Brock isn't a complete MMA fighter, but he has shown some incredible athletic ability in his short career. Being that Brock cuts weight to the 265lb limit, he will likely be 50lbs heavier than Randy on the night of the fight. Normally this wouldn't be a problem (as with Sylvia), but do we really think that Randy can take the big guy down? I can only hope that Randy also doubts that he will be on top when the fight goes to the ground ... then maybe he has worked on protecting himself from strikes and going for submissions off of his back. Arm bar, heel hook, or knee bar ... probably his best chances for winning the fight in my opinion.
I've gotta be honest though, I don't see Randy winning this fight.
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9-29-2008 @ 11:04AM
Aidan4 said...
Ya I agree I think that Couture's best chance of beating Lesnar is by submission, cant see him being able to dominate the fight trading punches although he probably has the speed advantage but defiantly doesn't have the power advantage and as for taking Lesnar down its going to be difficult considering Brocks size and wrestling skills but Couture might be able to do it. Couture needs to hit Lesnar with a submission from his back to win this fight in my opinion. Hope he does but i really dont think he'll be able to
9-29-2008 @ 10:21AM
Eirik said...
I cannot wait for Randy to make everyone eat their words like he always does. Belfort. Liddell, Sivia, Randelman, " & the hits just keep on coming." I take nothing away from Lesnars athletic ability, but I question his skill & heart as a complete MMA fighter. He def wont catch Randy w/ the same shots he caught MIR, or Herring with. Randy will have a plan, & who executes their plan in the cage better then him? Captain America will once again be in the building on Nov. 15th. BELIEVE IT!
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9-29-2008 @ 11:25PM
Ed said...
Ya know it's a shame Brock is getting a chance at the title. Dana's always going on about wanting respect for the sport, that these guys are the best, most well trained, highly skilled professional athletes in the world and then he puts Brock, a "veteran" of THREE fights (one loss, one win against a no name), in against the champion. Brock has a chance at beating anyone because of his shear size and power, It goes to show that in the real world, brawn can neutralize all the technique in the world. Think about it.. Randy is a seasoned Mixed martial artists who's been in there with the best of them, has beaten the best of them and all of a sudden this big lug comes from nowhere and has a LEGITIMATE chance at winning this fight. It makes you wonder. My 38 year old brother has been training in MMA for about a year now. He trains at a gym run by two legitimate pro MMA fighters and there are over 75 members. My brother is one of the least experienced and by far the oldest yet has always been a natural athlete and a very strong guy. Talking to one of the owners he informed me at this stage, even being 38 years old and only training for a years time that my little bro is the second best student and at 190lbs routinely out wrestles and submits much more experienced fighters as well as heavyweights half his age. I don't say this stuff to boast, I mean no one knows who the hell I am so what would boasting do? I say this because I'm at the point where I sincerely wonder how much of this stuff is training and how much of it is just natural ability. When a guy like Randy who is soooooooo far advanced than Brock is in real jeopardy of losing to such an inexperienced fighter it all just makes you wonder if the skills these fighters possess, I hate to say it, overrated. I'm not saying they are, I'm just wondering. In any event, I still think Randy will find a way to win. I'm hoping he does.
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9-29-2008 @ 2:55PM
Eric said...
I also hope that Randy can find a way to win this fight. You talked quite a bit about skill ... there is a HUGE skill difference, but there is also a HUGE size difference. The problem that I see in this fight is: I think Randy must win by submission, and though Randy is a great grappler he doesn't have a great submission game. The best position for him is dirty boxing in the clinch with his opponent against the cage ... I don't see him commanding the clinch with Brock (unless Brock tires).
I hate to mention Fedor (don't get me wrong people, Randy is the man), but with his striking - submission game - and unflappability beating Brock would be a walk in the park.
9-29-2008 @ 11:35PM
Ed said...
Randy often surprises us. Who would have thought he'd beat Chuck at his own game their first fight? Who would have thought he'd lay Tim out the first punch of their fight and go on to control him standing, on the ground, in the clinch etc? I tend to agree with you that Randy's best shot is to submit Brock, Randy may not be known for his submissions or even all that good with them compared to the top tier jujitsu guys, but he is beyond question much better than Brock in that regard. He should be better at every facet of the game, even wrestling, however he's so much smaller that any advantage he has in stand up, clinch and possibly wrestling might be offset by Brock's size and strength. In any event, I'm betting on Randy, and not because my heart tells me to, but because he so often finds a way to win and usually in a way we least expect. Hey, maybe he'll knock Brock out!
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9-30-2008 @ 12:38AM
Carl said...
Lesnar is/has:
Bigger
Stronger
Faster
much longer reach
55 pounds more
Couture is/has
45 years old
15 month ring rust...think about that. 15 months of court cases and B-movie acting all while Brock was dominating Herring.
Couture has a huge hill to climb, but if anyone can do it, it's him. But let's be honest, Sylvia is an awkward goof, and Gonzaga turtles as soon as he gets hit once. Brock is an animal and will push the pace and dictate where the fight goes. Randy is 16-8, I don't understand why he gets godlike status. People talk about Brock not deserving the title shot, well Randy did nothing to deserve the shot against Sylvia, heck he got knocked out at LHW in his bout before that with Liddell.
Either way this will be an entertaining fight and I can not wait.
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9-30-2008 @ 1:44PM
Tod said...
I'm torn over this fight. On one hand, I see this as a validation of MMA skills. If the big, athletic, poorly skilled Lesnar beats the smaller, athletic, highly skilled Couture, then it does say (as someone here commented) that maybe MMA skills in general are overrated. Definitely a black mark on the sport for Lesnar to win now.
However, I am always just a little suspicious of Dana. He knows Randy wants to leave the UFC and he doesn't want Couture to leave with his precious heavyweight title. Would it be possible that he might fix this fight??
Personally, I'm rooting for Randy and expecting him to win handily. Look for lots of leg kicks and a stellar takedown defense from ol Cap'n. He only has to weather the ferocious onslaught from Lesnar for 45 seconds after the opening bell.
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9-30-2008 @ 2:51PM
Eric said...
"he might fix this fight" ... there is no way in hell that Randy would take a dive.
"He only has to weather the ferocious onslaught from Lesnar for 45 seconds" ... he went all out for 15 minutes in the Herring fight.
This is a case in which 1 fighter is a natural light-heavyweight, and the other fighter is a monsterous heavyweight. If these guys were anywhere close to the same size, given the difference in skill this fight would be a joke.
People keep saying that Brock shouldn't have gotten this title shot so quick ... who else are you going to have Randy fight? He only wanted to come back for a big fight. Big Nog and Mir are already tied up, and the heavyweight division isn't very deep. Kongo maybe? Lesnar is dangerous and he wants to fight the best ... not to mention the fight is VERY marketable.
9-30-2008 @ 4:38PM
Tod said...
"... there is no way in hell that Randy would take a dive."
I would typically agree, but if it gets him out of his UFC contract immediately, I'm sure it would be worth considering. I'm only saying that I'm suspicious of the fight from the onset and we know how much effort Dana has expended making sure his titleholders don't walk away as champions. I'd love to say I know what Randy would and wouldn't do, but I never thought he would leave the UFC either.
"... he went all out for 15 minutes in the Herring fight."
And he fought ferociously for much, much less than 15 minutes against Mir (less than 90 seconds, if I recall). The punches on the ground were ineffective. Against Herring, Lesnar fought someone with _arguably_ no good way to slow him down. Where was the steady barrage of leg kicks against someone so clearly top heavy?? Want to slow down a fast guy?? Go after his legs. See much head movement from Herring??
As for the title shot for Lesnar, I'm not convinced he "deserves" it, but I do have to agree (somewhat) with your question as to who else would Randy fight. Well, how about a tune-up for someone with 15 months of ring rust?? Remember that Dana wouldn't give Chuck a shot to get his title back because he was knocked out in 90 seconds. Is Lesnar any better off??? Does a win against Heath Herring merit a title shot??
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10-01-2008 @ 7:20AM
Eric said...
He was submitted by Frank Mir .... hence the not fighting ferociously for more than 90 seconds! Conditioning played no part in that fight.
9-30-2008 @ 11:02PM
Steve said...
Randy has proved himself before but I don't think his MMA skills (submissions) are as strong as his wrestling skills. With Lesnar being a wrestler also and so much bigger and stronger, Randy could be in trouble. I think Lesnar's wrestling background negates a lot of the assets that Randy used to control previous fighters. It'll be interesting for sure.
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10-01-2008 @ 9:26AM
Tod said...
"He was submitted by Frank Mir .... hence the not fighting ferociously for more than 90 seconds! Conditioning played no part in that fight."
You're right.
I wasn't implying that Lesnar lacks the conditioning to fight more than 45 seconds, rather that he is an _explosive_ starter but then he backs off to pace himself. Look at Mir and Herring -- both knocked down within seconds of the fight starting.
My point is that Randy just has to weather the fast start and give himself a chance to settle into a rhythm and he has an excellent shot at winning a decision.
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10-05-2008 @ 3:15AM
Mike Fossano said...
Anyone that is a true MMA pro knows Randy is gonna win this fight. He was a division 1 wrestler. He's a seasoned veteran. Randy wants the fight for the money. Brock wants the fight for the money. People want to see the fight. If Randy wins you will complain. If Brock wins you will complain. I am done looking at these comments. An online gambling site like Bodog should give 100/1 odds on Brock winning I am sure they will clean up on this one. As for the people at Bodog and Michael Smith you are just afraid to pick a side and be wrong grow some balls and make a damned decision.
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10-22-2008 @ 2:37PM
Shaen said...
Lets look at the ways Couture could win this fight.
By submission, which if you look at his fight history he has only won three fights based on wrestling submissions all chokes. Good luck getting his arms around Brocks monster neck.
By decision, if the fight goes this long for it to come to a decision I feel sorry for Couture because his head will be ground beef from the constant pounding of the sledgehammer like fists of Brock. Remember people this is a 45 year old fighting a 5 round championship fight not 3 but 5 rounds.
By strikes, which I think is Coutures only real way of winning this fight. For this to happen he will have to get some big time luck to knock the young bull out.
I'm not saying The Natural, Captain America doesn't have a chance, but I think the stars will have to allign for him to come out the winner. It is the biggest test of his wrestling career. Either way MMA wins. We either get a Champion who truly has beat everyone there is to beat or a Champion who is in the prime of his life that will take MMA to the next level.
As a MMA fan I could not ask for anything better. Thanks Dana
great matchup.
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