UFC 98 Breakdown: Lyoto Machida vs. Rashad Evans

In some ways, the UFC 98 Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida light-heavyweight title match is not getting its due. The first UFC championship fight ever to boast two unbeatens deserves more attention than its currently getting.

As it stands, Evans (13-0-1) will enter the octagon as a sizable underdog, with Machida (14-0) riding a growing surge of respect for his game. While many point to his unique striking skills as the biggest reason for his success, there are many other reasons.

So how will the matchup go down? Let's take a look.

It is not Machida's striking as much as his footwork that causes trouble for the opposition. He quickly weaves his way in and out of range, only moving forward during times he knows he can connect, while otherwise staying out of harm's way. He uses feints to confuse his opponent's timing. He often steps back specifically to lure in an overaggressive foe for a clean strike. Finally, his frequent and effective use of foot sweeps also causes his opponent to sometimes further distance himself, making it even harder to unleash offense against him. Because of a harmonious balance of stance, footwork, timing and strategy, he is very difficult to hit. According to the site FightMetric.com, Machida is hit less than any current UFC champion, only 0.64 strikes absorbed per minute. By contrast, Evans is hit at more than double the rate, 1.39 strikes absorbed per minute.

Add to it all that he is a southpaw, and you have the makings of a nightmare matchup for anyone.

But it would be unfair to Evans to short-shrift him in the matchup, as he too has an excellent arsenal of skills at his disposal. In addition, he's fought a higher caliber of opponent thus far in his career.

The champion's biggest advantages over the challenger are his power and his wrestling ability. His power, as evidenced by a strong KO over Chuck Liddell and a TKO over Forrest Griffin, has become elite level as his striking skills were overhauled and polished by trainers Greg Jackson and Mike Winklejohn.

Evans is probably a bit underrated in his defense, as his excellent head movement and lateral quickness don't make for an easy target. That is of crucial importance against an accurate striker like Machida. But his wrestling could play the most important role. In recent fights, Evans has scaled back his takedowns, so it will be interesting to see if he reverts to some of his base skills or puts all his trust in his standup abilities. No fighter has been truly successful in smothering Machida against the fence or putting him on his back, but Evans has the ability to do so, and over the course of a five-round fight, he will likely need to show Machida different looks. Though Machida has always had good takedown defense skills, he has been put down before, so Evans' wrestling, effectively applied, could be a tide-turner.

Because neither man has suffered defeat, it's difficult to pinpoint many weaknesses to exploit. Machida seems to have a subtle tendency to keep his chin up as he moves forward to strike, so might be susceptible to a power shot, but first you have to reach him. Evans, meanwhile, has been a slow starter in the past, and giving up a round against Machida could prove insurmountable. Because Machida almost always wins rounds (he has yet to lose a single round in the UFC), it puts his opponents in a position where they have to chase him as the fight goes on, further putting them in harm's way. That could leave Evans in a position where he needs to show patience while trailing on the scorecards, never any easy prospect.

Perhaps the most interesting but underrated aspect of the fight is the mental battle. Both athletes are quite cerebral in their approach to each battle. Machida's fight IQ is obvious in his style, but Evans' is more subtle; he excels at one of the hardest facets of the game: in-fight adjustments. And let's face it, he didn't end up working with guru Jackson by accident. Jackson works best with those who believe both his physical training and strategic approach, and Evans subscribes to both philosophies.

During each of their respective camps, each man likely formulated strategies based on his own skills, then tried to prepare for what his opponent would be planning, and finally added new wrinkles, creating a game within the game. The physical manifestation of such preparation will be seen on Saturday, and it may result in several scenarios:

-- a fascinating tactical battle with frequent momentum swings
--small bursts of action that build drama throughout
--a slow-paced affair with both cautious for fear of making a fatal mistake
--a strategic changeup, with one or both playing against type to confuse the other

Any is possible, but with two stars at their athletic peaks, it is most realistic to expect a crisply fought, tense battle with both men sticking to their strengths. After all, neither has lost, so why change what has put them here?

Picking a winner with any level of confidence is nearly as impossible as figuring out a way to hit Machida. However, Evans' tendency to give away the first round while working out timing could turn out to be the biggest mistake in the fight, leaving him to find a way to win three of the next four rounds in order to earn a decision (something no one's done) or finish him (only Tito Ortiz's desperation triangle came close). Assuming the dynamics of that scenario, I suspect Machida will remain an unsolvable riddle for at least one more night.