UFC 98: Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra

Unlike the UFC 98 main event title match, in which anything could happen and we wouldn't really be surprised, the co-main event between longtime rivals Matt Hughes and Matt Serra has a certain level of predictability to it.

Both Hughes and Serra, after all, have been fighting for years and employing their own formulas to success.

What adds the sizzle to this one is the war of words that will finally see a winner emerge. So how will it go down? Let's take a look.

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As far as resumes go, it is no contest. Though you can say both were UFC welterweight champions, Hughes has been considered a top 10 welterweight for almost a decade and was involved in 12 UFC title fights from 2001-2007. Meanwhile, Serra only broke into the top 10 conversation after a stunning upset over Georges St. Pierre in '07.

Their level of activity, too, has been vastly different. Depending on what fight database you believe, Hughes is either 43-7, 42-7 or 40-7. Either way, he has many more fights than Serra, who is listed at 9-5 by most independent databases but 16-5 by the UFC. Many feel that all the physical wear-and-tear of MMA has been catching up with the 35-year-old Hughes, who is just 1-3 in his last four fights. However, it must be pointed out that those losses came to St. Pierre and Thiago Alves, the No. 1 and No. 2 welterweights in the world.

Hughes' game plan is as predictable as a Swiss watch: he's going to look for the takedown and to wear down his opponent from the top. Few have been able to successfully stop it, and Serra's level of success will be directly correlated to his ability to do so. In his last fight, at UFC 83, Serra could not stop GSP from taking him down, leading to a second-round TKO loss, but again, GSP is an elite-level talent, and no one has been able to successfully stuff him, so it's almost a moot point.

When you look for potential difference-makers in this fight, surprisingly, there are several.

Serra started turning the corner on his striking in a June 2005 loss to Karo Parisyan, which was an important element in rounding out his skills and making him dangerous in more aspects of the game. His big right hand will give Hughes something more to worry about than Serra's jiu-jitsu, but Hughes has never been one to fear contact, and so that won't likely stop him from bull-rushing Serra. Remember, Hughes is so confident in himself that he pulled guard against the massive Alves in his last fight. But if Serra can find a way to keep the fight upright, he should have the advantage.

Hughes has always had excellent stamina and for most of his career, was preparing for five-round fights. In addition, the 11 months away from the cage gave him time to rest up nagging injuries, and he might come in feeling refreshed and recharged. Serra, meanwhile, has in some spots tired towards the end of fights. Against Hughes, such a problem could prove decisive.

While many believe their ground games to be comparable, Hughes may have an edge. Though he has no official belt ranking in jiu-jitsu, Hughes has submitted many top-level fighters, has excellent topside control, and everyone knows about his ground-and-pound capabilities. Serra, meanwhile, has shown holes off his back, taking fire in that position from GSP and Parisyan in two of his last four fights. If Serra finds himself on his back, he will be in big trouble.

But Serra also has unpredictability in his corner. While Hughes' development was easy to track because he's been so active over the years, Serra's evolution has taken place in private workout sessions with coach Ray Longo. It was that cloak of invisibility that allowed him to surprise GSP the first time around. Serra is also a risk-taker. Going against conventional wisdom, he chose to stand and trade with St. Pierre at UFC 69 because he truly believed he could beat him striking. Having thought about the Hughes fight for so long (it was originally scheduled for UFC 79 way back in Dec. 2007), he likely has a very good game plan and had ample time to shore up his takedown defense. Both could prove crucial.

Finally, it's worth briefly mentioning that while the two clearly dislike each other, they both will always be remembered, Serra as the author of one of the sport's all-time upsets, and Hughes as an all-time great champion. But how's this for extra motivation: If Serra wins, he suddenly becomes more than the one-hit wonder some portray him to be. Wins over GSP and Hughes would represent besting the two top welterweights ever. And if Hughes wins, he knows he won't have to hear Serra voice his bragging rights for eternity.

So in the end, who will win? As it always does with Hughes, it will all come down to whether or not his opponent can stop the takedown. I suspect Serra will do so at first, but the energy he expends in fighting off Hughes will affect him as the fight goes on, and a fresher Hughes will eventually regain the momentum and grind out a decision win.