Randy Couture Doesn't Care, but Thinks Brock Lesnar Will Beat Frank Mir

Randy Couture has a big fight ahead of him against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 102, and if he wins he might just get another crack at the UFC heavyweight title, which will be decided in the main event of UFC 100, Frank Mir vs. Brock Lesnar. But Couture says he doesn't much care who wins that fight.

"I think both guys are amazing fighters," Couture tells our friend Steve Cofield of CageWriter.com. "I don't really care one way or the other. I'm leaning toward Lesnar. It's always harder for the guy who won the first one to make adjustments, come back and win again."

I disagree with Couture when he says that it's harder for the guy who wins the first time to come back and win again the second time. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but I believe that in MMA, the winner of the first fight wins about 70% of the rematches.

However, I think it makes a lot of sense that Couture says he doesn't much care who wins, because I think whether Couture gets another shot at the heavyweight title depends almost entirely on himself and hardly at all on what happens on Saturday night. I think if Couture has an impressive victory over Nogueira and emerges from it uninjured, he'll probably get the next heavyweight title shot no matter what happens on Saturday night. If Couture loses to Nogueira, or if he gets hurt in that fight and needs a long time off, then the next heavyweight title shot will probably go to the Shane Carwin-Cain Velasquez winner at UFC 104. So for Couture, it really doesn't matter whether Mir or Lesnar wins. And that allows him to be more candid in his analysis.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

7-09-2009 @ 10:45AM

Frederick said...

I think Mir will win since it was announced.

The feeling I get:

Mir as found Lesnar's weakness. Its is mind. Mir is triyng to get under is skin and its working.

Thats the feeling I get

I say lesnar is again going to be over agressive and gets caught in a sub

from the countdown show. I just got the feeling Lesnar is somebody who does not control is emotions. From when he said he did not stick to the game plan in the first fight.

Frank Mir is a smart fighter and will find a way before the fight to throw lesnar off

7-09-2009 @ 7:37PM

jahanngie said...

I think its gona be one of the best fights yet onUFC

7-09-2009 @ 11:58AM

jay said...

Frederick you have a good point. If Lesnar goes after Mir like he did, I think he is shooting himself in the foot. If he fights smarter, not harder, I think he will get the victory via TKO. We will just have to wait and see Saturday night!

As for Couture getting a crack a the title again if he beats Noguira, I hope not. I know he's The Man, The Legend, etc. but he JUST lost it. I want to see him against some younger, raw talent before he makes that step towards another shot.

7-09-2009 @ 2:09PM

chilly16 said...

"I disagree with Couture when he says that it's harder for the guy who wins the first time to come back and win again the second time." Well you should know.
LOL how many fights do you have under your belt??

7-09-2009 @ 3:08PM

imshortyk said...

He went by statistics, Chilly, if you continued reading =P I guess you didn't, I dunno. But I do agree with Randy. Unless you're some phenom like GSP, it's very hard to gameplan against somebody you've already beaten a year or two ago, who's coming back better than before.

Now this might be a stretch, but I say whoever wins the Velasquez versus Carwin fight should get a crack at the winner of the Couture versus Noguiera fight, then that person gets a title shot. Only seems fair, I think, but it'd give the current champion a lot of time off. I dunno, just an idea.

7-09-2009 @ 5:05PM

claytor said...

Well, they have to keep the champions active, having winners of multiple number one contender fights could develop into a long layoff for the champions, look at the LW class for evidence.

Couture is leaning towards Lesnar, because a)he believes he was handling Lesnar before getting stupid and not getting out of range, leading to his KO loss, and b)is fully aware that Mir is a more advanced fighter technically, and would prolly beat him in a more decisive manner.

This is not taking away from Brock at all, just saying Randy prolly sees it easier to bullfight than to outskill an insanely skilled opponent.

Btw, i also agree, if Brock paces himself he gives himself a much much larger shot at victory than if he bullrushes.

7-09-2009 @ 5:18PM

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. The layoff for the champ could either be good or bad, but it'd definitely play a factor in the championship fight. It's so hard now-a-days to keep champions active, though, with so many up and coming fighters and so little events. I'm sure the UFC'll adjust eventually, and maybe even put in another weight class. Featherweight maybe?

7-09-2009 @ 11:25PM

That is indeed the beauty of the current HW crop, isnt it :)

If Fedor could ever square away a proper deal for himself beside Whites tardo rhetoric, this would possibly be the greatest accumulation of HW's at once that ive ever seen. Good times indeed.

If i had to suggest a weight class, make either a 207-235 weight class at heavyweight, and then 237-265 super heavyweight. Perhaps even a 195 class as well. Soooo so many fighters now...